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christmas comes early in indy (pictures!)

Major League Baseball’s winter meetings is one of the most exciting times of the year for baseball fans.  All of the powers that be in baseball, the GM’s, some owners, the agents, the media, scouts, players, bloggers, all convene in one hotel and go nuts.  The rumors are endless, player will get signed, traded, and rule 5 drafted.  Most of the meetings are just one giant tease, but that’s one of the most exciting parts.  Late last night, there was a huge rumor about a 3-way trade with Curtis Granderson and the YankeesFun while it lasted, but it’s pretty much dead right now.  If you’re interested in following the winter meetings, check out MLBTraderrumors.com.  It is the place to be, up to the minute updates on any and every rumor.  I also recommend checking out Craig Calcaterra over at Circling the Bases at NBC.  He’s a former lawyer turned full time baseball blogger. If you’re a fan of baseball and you’ve got a favorite team, then the winter meetings will fullfill your baseball fix this week.  Hopefully I can be at next years if I can find a job working for a team.

*lots of fun things to click on in this post*

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

BCS bowl predictions with colin

Before I even begin, I don’t want to hear it. College football designed a championship system with the sole purpose of placating the sports talk radio and TV world, to give people lots of things to talk about. Furthermore, they drew up a system that purposely leaves out, statistically, the 3rd or 4th best conference (Mountain West Conference) because the teams in it have tiny fan bases. This ignores the fact that Utah finished last year beating Alabama in New Orleans and BYU smoked an (admittedly bad) Oklahoma in Fort Worth. The Mountain West can play.  This is why TCU gets so much love right here. Without further ado, here are how I think the bowls should pan out.

* Notable assumptions: Texas beats Nebraska for the Big 12 championship, Alabama beats Florida for the SEC championship, Georgia Tech beats Clemson for the ACC Championship.

1.  BCS National Championship Game: TCU vs Winner of National Semi-Final (SEC Championship Game.)

Rationale: TCU is faster than six cheetahs on Red Bull driving Saleen S7s. I saw Texas play in Laramie, Wyoming, and TCU will run all over them. I’ve seen TCU play a lot, because I get the Mountain West Channel. They make fast teams look like they are playing in slow motion. This is a team that deserves to play for a national title. TCU’s big wins are Virginia, who was unexpectedly disappointing, and Clemson, who will play for the ACC championship. And they have beaten three times more ranked teams than Texas (who beat Oklahoma, who isn’t even ranked anymore.) In any event, TCU will finish the year ranked higher than Boise State and garner the minor-conference at-large bid for finishing in the top 12. I will assume Alabama/Florida’s pedigrees are such that they needn’t be defended.

2.  Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Pac-10 Winner (probably Oregon.) The Buckeyes are already in. Oregon is playing well after a big road win in Tucson and will make a formidable Rose Bowl opponent if they can get by the Beavers in one of the best rivalries in college football. This is a traditional Big Ten-Pact 10 matchup.

3.  Fiesta Bowl: Usually Big 12 Winner vs. At Large. This game should be Texas vs. Cincinnati or Pittsburgh. The Fiesta Bowl loves Pittsburgh, and the winner of their game this year will have earned the right to beat a generally unimpressive but still undefeated Texas squad.

4.  Sugar Bowl: Usually SEC Champ vs. At-Large. I would put Florida and Boise State in here. Boise State can’t get BCS conference teams to play them, and they beat Oregon, the probable Pac-10 champ. They can’t do anything more to get in, and they play exciting football. It’s simple, really: If they beat Florida, they permanently establish themselves as a deserving top-five power. If they lose, it’s back to winning the WAC and praying for respect each year.

5.  Orange Bowl: Usually ACC vs. At-Large. The BCS gets ugly here. The feasible remaining teams are Iowa, loser of Pitt/Cincy, Oklahoma State, and surprisingly, 10-2 Utah, if they beat BYU this week. Should Cincinnati lose, they will have one loss but they have a tiny fan base, especially compared to Iowa or OK State. Penn State would be in here, but Iowa beat them at home and they lack wins (yes, any wins) against ranked teams. Thus, I think Iowa will appear in this game. But one should consider the following wild cards:

– T. Boone Pickens is an Oklahoma State alumnus.

– The BCS loves LSU and USC.

– 1/8 people in the United States with any college degree holds one of them on Penn State letterhead.

– Cincinnati will be the only remaining at-large one loss team, even if they lose to Pittsburgh.

 

Clearly, crazy things should happen. If you come away from this with one thing, it should be that TCU deserves to play for the National Championship.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

thanks for the memories TBS

With the Phillies beating the Dodgers, there will no longer be any playoff baseball games on TBS (they are the ones that know comedy, not drama..duh).  Fox is the only network left, and as the Yankees take on The The Angels of The Angels, we must put TBS to sleep.  Maybe this is just me, but I felt like there were about, oh I don’t know, 8 commercials that ran over and over and over and over again.  Well TBS, in your attempt to brainwash us, I’ve learned quite a bit about life…

1.  If you’re having a party, clearly, there must be guacamole there, because if there’s not, obvi it’s bush league…bro.

2.  Men of a Certain Age looks like a pretty good show, hyping it ADED (all day every day) when it is set to air December 10th, not a great idea.  All I know is that I too now hate the friend who is making out with the young hot girl more now than I did in college.

3.  I started having nightmares in which Ernie Johnson would interrupt my dream and tell me that the dream cannot be completed on my current network, and that it needs to be moved to my sister network, TNT.

4.  There is something magical that has entered the marketplace.  I never knew I was waiting for this, but I now know what I have been missing.  The best part?  Shhhh…..pepperjack sauce….black taco anyone?

5.  If you don’t have an iphone, and you realize your phone doesn’t have any cool shit…there’s a map for that.

6.  If you have an erection lasting longer than 4 hours, something went terribly wrong.

7.  Cat Stevens is a legend, but after the playoffs, I really feel no urgency whatsoever to sing out and be free.

8.  Saiontz and Kirk…um…where the hell did Miles go?

9.  At least there wasn’t a Frank TV ad every 37 seconds.  right?

10.  Chip Caray, you suck dude.  I have never heard a professional, that makes his living on TV, use the word fisted more than you have.  There are only a few things in life that can be fisted, and baseball are not one of them.

11.  Erik Estrada, I feel bad for you.  I’d buy your glasses though because they are sweet.  Eeeeestraaaaaada.

12.  Don’t always assume you have a going problem, because you may in fact have a growing problem instead.

13.  Nick Punto is a baseball player…wait…isn’t that obvious, why did TBS keep reminding me of that?  Hmm…Weird.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Arod is the man

anyone else lose their voice screaming?yankees-angels

Check out the video…

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Let’s play “spot that ex-Indian!” with Colin Ray

wildthingmlbFrom about 1954-1993, the Cleveland Indians were the last word in terrible baseball. You may have heard stories about April games at Cleveland Municipal Stadium with 500 people and a 30 mph wind blowing in off Lake Erie and a temperature hovering around 35 degrees, about games in July with 500 people, too many 100-loss seasons to count. Really, just watch Major League to get an idea. Many longtime Indians fans (also known affectionately as “lunatics”) blame this on the Curse of Rocky Colavito. This so-called but statistically confirmed curse was caused by the Indians trading their one star player, home run champ Rocky Colavito, to the Tigers, for Harvey Kuenn. Though Wikipedia credits Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer for putting it in print, Indians fans have been referencing this curse since at least the mid-1980s.

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For Indians fans, the Curse of Colavito is long gone. We now have ample curses to worry about. It gets rough this time of year because of the insane number of former Indians stars who are getting shots to win rings with other clubs. I recognize that due to events on the field, some of these fellows have been erased from contention this year. Without further ado, here they are…

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New York Yankees- Only one former Indian graces the Bronx Bums’ roster—Carsten Charles Sabathia. He was traded to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Michael Brantley and Rob Bryson in 2008. Of those, LaPorta, Jackson and Brantley have reached the bigs. LaPorta was supposed to be the greatest prospect since Honus Wagner. Right now he’s hitting .268, recovering from two surgeries, and is the brightest piece of that deal. Sabathia did go to New York as a free agent, but it’s safe to say the Yanks have a bit of a banking advantage over the Indians, who are going to lose at least $16 million this year.

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Boston Red Sox- In a salary-and-competition-dumping move, the Indians traded Victor Martinez to Boston for Justin Masterson and some minor leaguers. One can’t judge this trade in full yet, other than Martinez explicitly asked to not be traded because he liked Cleveland, primarily because people leave him alone here, and he still had another full season and a club option left on his contract. And now he’s in Boston. Masterson has been downright unremarkable thus far, despite Peter Gammons having a giant stiffy for him. Martinez came up with the Indians and is the best hitting catcher of this generation, aside from Joe Mauer, and he’s only 30. This could go down as one of the worst trades ever.

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Philadelphia Phillies- Cliff Lee’s departure from the Indians leaves Grady Sizemore as the last remnant of perhaps the greatest trade of all time (Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew to the Expos for Sizemore, Lee, Lee Stevens, and Brandon Phillips.) Indians fans had the fun of watching Lee be good, then completely lose all of his stuff, and then come back and win the Cy Young, then go to Philly with plus-outfielder Ben Francisco, and then rip on Indians fans for not showing up to the park. Sorry if Ohio has been in a recession since 2001, Cliff. On the bright side, the Indians got four prospects; on the downside, they are no one worth writing about and none of the Phillies’ best, either.

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St. Louis Cardinals- The Indians signed Mark DeRosa this off-season to add pop, defensive versatility, and veteran leadership to a lineup with little pop, too much defensive versatility and no veterans. His trade to the Redbirds was significant because it represented the white flag going up in 2009 for the Indians. He danced down the concourse on his way to a flight out of Cleveland. The Indians also briefly acquired Ryan Ludwick, who was ineffective with the Tribe.

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Los Angeles Dodgers- Two of the nicest guys in baseball, Jim Thome and Casey Blake, have a shot at October glory in the City of Angels. Ronnie Belliard put in three strong years playing short right field at Jacobs/Progressive Field. There’s also a guy named Ramirez who, it’s tough to remember, debuted with the Indians in 1993.

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Colorado Rockies- GM Dan O’Dowd was actually assistant GM of the Indians before going a mile high in Denver. The Rockies have been up and down under his watch, but he’s made many bold moves and developed many talented players. Reliever Rafael Betancourt spent significant time in Cleveland and was at one time nearly unhittable. Unfortunately, this period of time coincides with when he was accused of being on the juice.  Either way.

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editors note:  I love doing this with Cub and Yankee former players too.  Feel free to comment about some of your favorite teams and who in the playoffs played for them.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Arod being Arod

310tojoba

Hat tip to 3:10 to Joba for taking this screen capture.

First of all, this picture is just hilarious.  What the hell is he doing?  I think as most Yankee fans who watch the team play every day know, A-rod is a little bit of a weird dude.  He always seems to be doing some weird, flamboyant gyration, or putting his body, or his bat in some weird suggestive position.  There was a play last night when Alex was up where the ball got tangled in his feet, and Alex kind of threw his hands up in the air and, “assumed the position,” like he was about to get padded down.  Soon after, the camera’s focused on the Yankee dugout, and you could see Jeter and the rest of the team laughing their asses off at another, “Alex being Alex” situation.  He may be a odd fellow, but he one heck of a hitter.

All of the chatter surrounding the Yankees entering the post-season revolved around how the big free agent signings and of course, how Alex Rodriguez would perform.  Well, CC got the win and went 6.2 with 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts and no walks.  AJ went 6 innings with 3 hits and 1 run, and Tex hit a walk off home run in game two.  The man who was supposed to go down as one of the biggest choke artists in post season history, A-rod has 2 homeruns, 4 runs scored, 6 RBI’s, and an OPS of 1.500 in the series against the twins.  Needless to say, all is good in Yankee land, thank you Kate Hudson for making our Alex happy.  Think about this next time you bring up Alex Rodriguez and his post season resume.  Courtesy of Rob Neyer…

A bit of postseason trivia, via my friend Allen Barra: Alex Rodriguez has now played in 42 postseason games. In those 42 games, he’s batted .291 with nine home runs and 25 RBI.

In Reggie Jackson’s first 42 postseason games, he batted .265 with seven home runs and 19 RBI. Through 42 games, Reggie Jackson was just another great player who hadn’t done anything particularly special in October. So, how did get that nickname?

It looks like Alex is on his way to getting his very own postseason nickname this year.  Any ideas?  What about Octorod (like Octomom)?

And in regards to the screen capture, all I know, is that I’m glad Alex is keeping his eye on everything…he’s always watching…always…be careful.  You’re my boy Alex.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Jonas’s playoff preview

alex-rodriguez-arms-upAfter witnessing one of the most exciting games of the season last night between the Twins and the *cough, cough* Tigers, the playoff season is finally here.  Without further delay, here is exactly what will happen this month.  Yes, exactly what will happen…

Divisional Series

Yankees vs. Twins

Over before it started.  The Yankees will do what the Tigers did, and not allow Mauer to beat them, I predict that he has twice as many walks as hits in the series.  The Yankees will win the first game decisively against a tired Twins team, and then coast to a sweep from there.  Look for Rivera and Hughes to pitch almost every game, due to the longer series.  Yankees, 3-0

Red Sox vs. Angels

I don’t see this series being as close as others do.  Jon Lester is the best left-handed pitcher in baseball, Beckett is one of the best post-season pitchers of all time, and the Sox have a lights out, flame-throwing bullpen with 4+ potential closers.  The Angels bullpen has been sub-par the whole season, and I wouldn’t trust Fuentes to pump my gas.  Look for Vlad to ground into some heartbreaking double plays, and JD Drew to come get on base 50% of the time.  Chone Figgen’s and the roadrunners may spell the end of Varitek’s post-season too.  We can only hope.  Red Sox 3-1

Phillies vs. Rockies

The Phillies are a better team, plain and simple.  They have two legitimate aces, a lineup full of all-stars, and a World Series trophy full of experience and swagger.  But what they don’t have is a closer, and Manuel has no idea what he is going to do.  You can’t mess around in a 5 game series, and I predict that Charlie “go with my gut” Manuel will trust Lidge, and it will bite him in the ass early in the series, and than the closer carousel will fall apart as a result.  Rockies 3-2

Dodgers vs. Cardinals

If only the Dodgers stayed as hot as they did in the first half.  What happened to ]the Torre magic?  The Cardinals loaded up around the trade deadline, stacking their lineup with studs to surround  Albert the Great.  Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero are as good a 1, 2, 3 as any team in the playoffs.  I don’t trust the Chin to close games out, but I trust anything Albert does.  Randy Wolf starts game one, and Padilla game 3? FML.  Cardinals 3-0

Championship Series

Yankees vs. Red Sox

The series that a baseball fan lives for.  Two dynamic offenses, strike-out pitching staffs, and bullpens that can hold both cities ego’s.  Be ready to see some legendary homeruns, bases loaded magic, defensive miscues and masterpieces.  Look for Arod to contiue to shorten up and poke the ball through the middle like he has all season, Brett Gardner to steal some huge, Dave Roberts style, bases, and for Rivera to continue to awe and inspire.  Lester will shock us with his brilliance, Beckett will wow us with his heart, and Papelbon will show us why he has been a let-down all year.  The Nations heart will break with a game 7, extra inning walk off…an A-Bomb, from A-Rod.  Yankees 4-3

Cardinals vs. Rockies

As much heart as the Rockies have, the JV is a lock for the Cardinals.  The senior circuit has only one team that can give the AL champion a fight.  Albert will put on a laser light show, Carpenter will throw a complete game 1-hitter, Jimenez will strike out 10 and hit 100 mph in the 7th inning, and Brad Hawpe will stun us all, displaying how utterly terrible and mind boggling bad his defense is.  Albert Pujols Cardinals 4-1

World Series

Yankees vs. Cardinals

A vintage fall classic between two franchises with some of the richest history in baseball.  Two of the best players to ever step foot on a field, possibly the best hitter and best pitcher of all time…Mo and Al.  Just imagine these two facing off in the 9th inning with the World Series on the line.  Look for a series full of these one-on-one match-ups that will keep us glued to our televisions.  A huge Jeterian single in the 9th inning of game six to right center will set up a bunt (Girardi’s NL fatal flaw which will cost them a game) from Damon, followed by a walk to Texeira to load the bases for A-Rod.  With the Fox cameras glued to Kate Hudson, A-Rod will finally have his opportunity to single handedly win a world series.  Unfortunately, A-Rod will strike out with the bags sacked, flail his arms and waddle back to the dugout…but Posada will walk against Ryan “my chin hair distracts you from my talent” Franklin with the bases loaded to win it all.  Anti-climatic, but #27 none the less.  Yankees 4-2

Be sure to check out Mike and Colin’s playoff predictions.  Tell us what you think in the comments (located at the top of the post)

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Colin’s take on the playoffs

worldseries1The teams are set, the groundskeepers are trying to make their parks look as ostentatious as possible, “fans” are dusting off hats they haven’t worn all summer, and there’s a chill in the air as Tim McCarver practices up on basic English phrases in a surely vain attempt to not embarrass himself for the umpteenth year in a row. Playoff baseball is here.
While the rest of the blogging triumvirate fills you in on other details, I’ll give you a brief rundown on teams’ strengths. Put another way, I’ll tell you what they should do in order to win, since some teams won’t do it, and will lose.

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Angels – Much is made of the Angels’ “National League” style of baseball and Mike Scioscia’s game management. But they’re aging. Their pitching is nothing short of totally suspect. What do the Angels have that no one else has?

The Angels are, dare I say it, a blue-collar team in a tinsel-collared town. The middle of the order is crammed with veteran hitters with decent pop and plenty of late-inning match up problems. Boring, and obvious, but as long as half the lineup shows up to play, the Angels will pound their opponents into the ground.
I can’t believe I just called the Angels a blue-collar team.

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Yankees- On paper, the Pinstripers are clearly the favorite in the American League. Listing their strengths would probably be redundant. But some Yankees (Sabathia, Rodriguez) have downright atrocious playoff stats, Derek Jeter’s only one man, and Mariano Rivera is only good from the 8th inning on. What do the Yanks have to no one else has?

Chemistry. The Yankees have great team chemistry for a team of overpaid prima donnas. They play hard, they slide hard, they pitch inside, they celebrate as a team, and it shows in the stat column; they lead the league in wins and walk-off wins. If the Yankees get out the gate clean, they’re a formidable force.

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Red Sox- The Sawx, as always, hold the unenviable advantage of the most obnoxious and ignorant fans in all of professional sports, outdoing French soccer hooligans and women’s billiards enthusiasts. They also have rings, Terry Francona and Jonathon Papelbon, and the worst home park in the Majors. But everyone knows how to play Fenway by now, Francona is going to have gum cancer next week, and good closers are common in the playoffs. What do the Red Sox have that no one else has?

Enough good starting pitching, even though it doesn’t look like it. Beckett is unhittable in the playoffs, and Lester’s been great all year. With one and two set, the Sox can (and I look for them to) use Byrd and Buchholz perhaps a duo, and mix in Wakefield as needed. And then cycle back to the beginning. Paul Byrd has a fresh arm and has good playoff numbers. If the Sox get wins from Beckett and a healthy Lester, they’ll be tough to beat.

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Twins- The Twins are hot, winning 17 out of 21 to snatch the Central Division from the declawed Motor City Kitties. And they have the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, the hardest place in which to play baseball on the road in October, period. But their pitching is tired and they are going to be hung over in the Bronx. Where is their strength?

This is a weak team that looked pretty bad against Detroit. If they win, it’s because they play mistake-free baseball and have Ron Gardenhire on the bench.

National League

I’m going to be totally honest, I don’t watch a lot of nor care for JV baseball. But I’ll give it a shot here.

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Phillies- At the risk of being overly simple, the Phils have a similar team to last year’s best-in-baseball squad, except they added Cliff Lee and Ryan Madson this year. Add to that that Charlie Manuel hates being knocked off a pedestal. The Phillies are good.

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Cardinals- The Cards play in St. Louis and are therefore endangered by their mere proximity to the horrendous Rams. How will they possibly succeed?
By playing boring baseball. Two excellent starters in Carpenter and Wainwright are a formidable threat, especially in the first round. An American League-style lineup, a solid bullpen, and a proven winner with La Russa…what else do you want?

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Rockies- The Rockies somehow have good pitching this year. But no Matt Holliday, which means all runners will probably have to touch the plate on their way to the dugout if they want their runs to count. What will it take for the Rockies to sneak around the Phillies?
Hitting the snot out of the ball. The Rockies know better than to count on their pitching, ever. They need to hit like an American League team, which means Tulowitzki can’t be AWOL like in ’07.

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Dodgers- Two LA teams in the post season is the second worst thing about baseball (besides two New York teams, or New York and Boston teams.) Manny is slumping. The Dodgers have to compete with Lakers preseason practice towel-tossing locations for press coverage. What will the Dodgers do?
Ride the J.T.’s all the way to the NLCS. Joe Torre and Jim Thome, that is. And Manny, the career playoff home run leader, will help. Jim Thome is 17-for-233 in the post season. Just for home runs. That works out to .00072…which looks a lot like A-Rod’s batting average of .071 in the ’06 post season loss to the Tigers. Just for home runs, mind you.

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Thus I must venture outlandish predictions and justify them with one sentence apiece:

Divisional Series

AL. Twins stun the Yankees in four. I just like the sound of it.  Angels throw the rally monkey off their backs and beat the Sox in four.

NL. Phillies stomp the Rockies into sand and sweep them away.  Cardinals beat down the Dodgers despite Thome’s seven solo home runs in series.

Championship Series

AL.  Twins run out of luck in the ALCS; Angels in six.

NL. Pujols catches fire and leads Cards to dramatic game seven win against Phillies in NLCS.

World Series

Cardinals are just too good for Angels, win in six. Milton Bradley throws temper tantrum. Joe Buck cries of happiness and gets fired from Fox, so no one has to hear him ever again. Craig Sager moves to the booth so no one is forced to regard his heinous wardrobe choices.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

wow, what a game

h/t to Fangraphs for the chart.  Check out the ebbs and flows…

tigerstwins

Insights from MGL (a SABR guru) over at the book blog

1) Chip Caray is an embarrasment to broadcasting.

2) Randy Marsh, the home plate umpire, is in fact one of the best hitters’ umpires (small strike zone), yet his call against Polanco on the inside breaking pitch with runners on 1 and 3rd with 0 outs, was really bad.

3) Granderson, one of the smartest players in baseball (or at least one of the most articulate), makes a basic, Little League, baserunning blunder in that same inning.

4) Casilla did NOT make a baserunning blunder on the tag from third, as Darling was harping on for the rest of the game.  If that ball drops in front of the left fielder, he has to be off the bag a little in order to be able to score.  He COULD have gone right back to the bag, but let’s just say that it was not a clear blunder.

5) I did not see the attempted shoe string catch that led to the triple.

6) With the bases loaded and that chopper to second base, there is NO way any player in baseball should get thrown out at home on the force.  If you watch the replay, it looks as if Cabrera assumed there would be no throw home and was not running hard, nor did he get a good jump, both being inexcusable.

7) I am not sure why Leland would issue the IBB to the RHB in the 12th with 1 out, when there is very little chance (I assume) of the DP with the lefty Casilla at the plate.  Leland is generally a bad manager in my opinion.

8 ) I don’t know exactly who was going to be available from the pen, but it seemed curious to me that Leland brought Zach Miner into the game in a fairly high leverage situation. He is basically a replacement level reliever and should only be used in low leverage situations and emergencies.  Does Leland think he is better than he likely is?  His one year stats are not particularly good, so I don’t see why he would think he is any better than a journeyman.

9) Should Leyland have used Rodney for so many batters/innings?  He was clearly tired and lost 3-5 mph on his fastball and was throwing a lot of breaking pitches.  Was there another, better option in the pen? I don’t know.

Some of my thoughts…

1)  Why was the right fielder playing deep and shaded to the right-center gap with a slap hitter up, who is very capable of slapping a ball in the hole (which he did)?  Especially with Gomez on 2nd.  weird

2)  That sinker that Kebbel threw to strike out Laird with the bases loaded and a full count was beyond filthy.

3)  How can Young throw to 3rd base on a ball in the gap with a runner on 1st?  The runner was easily going to get to 3rd, and his dumb throw took the double play out of order

4)  It’s amazing that Joe Mauer had nothing to do with this game.  The Tigers just wouldn’t let him beat them, rightly so too.

The Yankees now get to face a Minnesota team that will most likely not get into New York until the wee hours of the morning, played a 12 inning marathon (yes, Mauer caught every inning), burnt out their bullpen, and will be started by Brian Duensing against CC Sabathia and the bombers on full rest.  That being said, baseball is baseball, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins won in a blowout.

Check back tomorrow for Colin and my pics to win in the playoffs, and a bit more of a preview.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

Mike’s playoff preview: the pen is mightier than the sword

Dodgers winIn a close game, there is nothing more valuable than a shutdown bullpen, except for maybe a shutdown ace that can go all nine innings, but Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke are not in the playoffs, so teams are settling for human starters, and will indeed be relying on their bullpens.  The ability to shorten a game to seven or even eight innings with guys like Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera gives a huge advantage to the Red Sox and Yankees. Obviously, those are two of the best relievers in the game right now, Rivera may be the best ever, but let’s just look at team totals from 2009.

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Fangraphs has the following values for the bullpens of the 8 teams in the playoffs:

Red Sox: 50.3 Runs Above Replacement
Rockies: 49.3 Runs Above Replacement
Dodgers: 47.1 Runs Above Replacement
Yankees: 43.6 Runs Above Replacement
Angels: 37.1 Runs Above Replacement
Twins: 33.3 Runs Above Replacement
Phillies: 21.3 Runs Above Replacement
Cardinals: 5.3 Runs Above Replacement

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So it is pretty clear to see that there appears to be three tiers of bullpens in the playoffs, the dominant: Red Sox, Rockies, Dodgers, and Yankees, the above average, the Angels, Twins, and Phillies, and the mediocre bullpen of the Cardinals. Because of this uneven spread, I would have to say in any close game situation, the Red Sox, Rox, Dodgers, and Yanks have a huge advantage over any other teams. In a short series anything can happen, so it is a huge relief to have a strong bullpen to fall back on if a starter cannot get the job done.

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And there is a clear relationship between the World Series winner and a good bullpen:

2008 Phillies: 49.3 RAR
2007 Red Sox: 61.3 RAR
2006 Cardinals: 7.8 RAR (this team was just a fluke all around – a screaming example of the randomness of the playoffs)
2005 White Sox: 45.6 RAR
2004 Red Sox:  49.3 RAR

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You get the idea. A good bullpen takes pressure off starters and off of the manager, especially a stupid one, where bringing in a certain pitcher may decide who wins the game. I think that because of the strength of bullpens, the World Series matchup is going to be Boston and L.A. Both teams have excellent starting pitching, darn good bullpens, and excellent hitting lineups.

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My pick to win it all: The Dodgers. They should be able to contain the Boston offense with their four very good starters in Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, and Hiroki Kuroda. Their starting four is too deep for the Red Sox to handle. The Red Sox only have three dependable pitchers in their playoff rotation, just like every other AL team, but I think the Dodgers have the edge in the middle of that rotation, especially if Boston is going to rush Jon Lester and Josh Beckett back if they are going deeper into a series.

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Dodgers in 6.

Filed under: The On-Deck Circle

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